Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Educational innovation through information and communication technologies: Case study in a formative research course

This research describes educational innovation through information and communication technologies and proposes a case study in a formative research course where the Covid-19 pandemic led to the need to rethink the entire teaching-learning process. The research was of the non-experimental type with a mixed approach (qualitative and quantitative) and a descriptive scope. The analyzed course was taught in person and at the beginning of the pandemic it became a virtual course where the class was developed through Zoom and with the support of an educational platform in Canvas. However, the course has been redesigned to be carried out in an asynchronous modality, where the teacher fulfills a function of accompaniment and virtual advice. Likewise, the course has included gamification strategies where the student can obtain badges depending on their progress. In conclusion, it has been possible to demonstrate how information and communication technologies facilitate educational innovation for a correct design and implementation of virtual learning environments. © 2021 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.

Innovación educativa a través de tecnologías de la información y comunicación: estudio de caso en un curso de investigación formativa

This research describes educational innovation through information and communication technologies and proposes a case study in a formative research course where the Covid-19 pandemic led to the need to rethink the entire teaching-learning process. The research was of the non-experimental type with a mixed approach (qualitative and quantitative) and a descriptive scope. The analyzed course was taught in person and at the beginning of the pandemic it became a virtual course where the class was developed through Zoom and with the support of an educational platform in Canvas. However, the course has been redesigned to be carried out in an asynchronous modality, where the teacher fulfills a function of accompaniment and virtual advice. Likewise, the course has included gamification strategies where the student can obtain badges depending on their progress. In conclusion, it has been possible to demonstrate how information and communication technologies facilitate educational innovation for a correct design and implementation of virtual learning environments. © 2021 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021 (preprint)

ImportanceWhile much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. ObjectiveTo estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery DesignWe jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. ResultsAnalyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevanceThe occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSWhat are the extent and nature of the most common long COVID symptoms by country in 2020 and 2021? FindingsGlobally, 144.7 million people experienced one or more of three symptom clusters (fatigue; cognitive problems; and ongoing respiratory problems) of long COVID three months after infection, in 2020 and 2021. Most cases arose from milder infections. At 12 months after infection, 15.1% of these cases had not yet recovered. MeaningThe substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.

The relative incidence of COVID-19 in healthcare workers versus non-healthcare workers: evidence from a web-based survey of Facebook users in the United States.

Background: Healthcare workers are at the forefront of the COVID-19 pandemic and it is essential to monitor the relative infection rate of this group, as compared to workers in other occupations. This study aimed to produce estimates of the relative incidence ratio between healthcare workers and workers in non-healthcare occupations. Methods: Analysis of cross-sectional data from a daily, web-based survey of 1,788,795 Facebook users from September 6, 2020 to October 18, 2020. Participants were Facebook users in the United States aged 18 and above who were tested for COVID-19 because of an employer or school requirement in the past 14 days. The exposure variable was a self-reported history of working in healthcare in the past four weeks and the main outcome was a self-reported positive test for COVID-19. Results: On October 18, 2020, in the United States, there was a relative COVID-19 incidence ratio of 0.7 (95% UI 0.6 to 0.8) between healthcare workers and workers in non-healthcare occupations. Conclusions: Currently in the United States, healthcare workers have a substantially and significantly lower COVID-19 incidence rate than workers in non-healthcare occupations.

Estimated Health Outcomes and Costs of COVID-19 Prophylaxis With Monoclonal Antibodies Among Unvaccinated Household Contacts in the US.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 900 000 deaths in the US and continues to disrupt lives even as effective vaccines are available. Objective: To estimate the health outcomes and net cost of implementing postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) with monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against household exposure to COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study is a decision analytical model of results from a randomized clinical trial of casirivimab with imdevimab administered as subcutaneous injections to unvaccinated, SARS-CoV-2-negative household contacts of people with confirmed COVID-19 with complementary data on household demographic structure, vaccine coverage, and confirmed COVID-19 case counts. The study used US data from May 2021 for a simulated population of US individuals of all ages within low-transmission or high-transmission scenarios. Exposures: Age, sex, race, ethnicity, and COVID-19 vaccination status. Main Outcome or Measures: Symptomatic infection, hospitalization, death, and net payer cost of monoclonal antibody PEP for COVID-19. Results: In a month of transmission intensity similar to that of May 2021, a mAb PEP program reaching 50% of exposed, unvaccinated household members aged 50 years and older was estimated to avert 1820 symptomatic infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1220-2454 symptomatic infections), 528 hospitalizations (95% UI, 354-724 hospitalizations), and 84 deaths (95% UI, 55-116 deaths) in a low-transmission scenario and 4834 symptomatic infections (95% UI, 3375-6257 symptomatic infections), 1404 hospitalizations (95% UI, 974-1827 hospitalizations), and 223 deaths (95% UI, 152-299 deaths) in a high-transmission scenario. Without mAb PEP, the estimated cost of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 infections from household exposure in the lower transmission scenario was $149 million (95% UI, $115-$196 million), whereas the estimated hospitalization cost in the higher transmission scenario was $400 million (95% UI, $312-$508 million). In the lower transmission scenario, mAb PEP administered to 50% of eligible contacts aged 80 years and older was estimated to have 82% probability of saving costs, but was not associated with cost savings at age thresholds of 50 years and older or 20 years and older. In contrast, in the high-transmission scenario, mAb PEP administered to 50% of eligible household contacts had estimated cost savings in 100% of simulations at the 80-year age threshold, 96% of simulations at the 50-year threshold, and 2% of simulations at the 20-year thresholds. Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of a simulated US population, a mAb PEP for COVID-19 program was estimated to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. In the setting of a susceptible variant of SARS-CoV-2, health system and public health actors would have an opportunity to improve health and reduce net payer costs through COVID-19 PEP with mAbs.

Association Between Subnational Vaccine Coverage, Migration, and Incident Cases of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella in Iraq, 2001-2016.

OBJECTIVE: This analysis examines governorate-level disease incidence as well as the relationship between incidence and the number of persons of concern for three vaccine-preventable diseases-measles, mumps, and rubella-between 2001 and 2016. METHODS: Using Iraqi Ministry of Health and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) data, we performed descriptive analyses of disease incidence and conducted a pooled statistical analysis with a linear mixed effects regression model to examine the role of vaccine coverage and migration of persons of concern on subnational disease incidence. RESULTS: We found large variability in governorate-level incidence, particularly for measles (on the order of 100x). We identified decreases in incident measles cases per 100,000 persons for each additional percent vaccinated (0.82, 95% CI: [0.64, 1.00], p-value < 0.001) and for every additional 10,000 persons of concern when incorporating displacement into our model (0.26, 95% CI: [0.22, 0.30], p-value < 0.001). These relationships were insignificant for mumps and rubella. CONCLUSIONS: National level summary statistics do not adequately capture the high geospatial disparity in disease incidence between 2001 and 2016. This variability is complicated by MMR vaccine coverage and the migration of "persons of concern" (refugees) during conflict. We found that even when vaccine coverage was constant, measles incidence was higher in locations with more displaced persons, suggesting conflict fueled the epidemic in ways that vaccine coverage could not control.

MIS-C at two tertiary hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa: clinical phenotype and distinguishing features from similar acute inflammatory conditions

Introduction: Distinguishing Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) associated with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) from acute, pyrexial childhood illness can be challenging. We present a case series from two tertiary centres in Cape Town, South Africa and compare the clinical phenotype of MISC with mimicking systemic inflammatory disorders. Objectives: 1. Describe the clinical characteristics of children with MIS-C in the region. 2. Compare the clinical features of children with confirmed MIS-C to those who presented during the same period with suspected MIS-C and ultimately an alternative diagnosis of inflammatory or infective conditions (inflammatory controls). Methods: Children with MIS-C admitted to the Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital (RXH) and Tygerberg Hospital (TBH) between 22 June 2020 and 5 March 2021 were recruited. At RXH only, children with suspected MIS-C with an ultimate alternate diagnosis (inflammatory controls) were also recruited. Clinical data were collected. Results: During the time period, 70 children had confirmed MIS-C and 27 suspected MIS-C cases had an alternate diagnosis including typhoid, tuberculosis, sepsis and appendicitis among others. Sixty five percent of children with MIS-C had no SARS-CoV2 contact but all had evidence of SARS-CoV2 exposure by antibody (90%) or Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests (14%). There was no difference in age, sex or ethnic distribution between children with MIS-C and inflammatory controls (Table 1). The most common presenting features of MIS-C were fever (100%), tachycardia (99%), rash (86%), conjunctivitis (79%), and abdominal pain (60%). Compared to inflammatory controls, the presence of tachycardia, abdominal pain and conjunctivitis resulted in 96%;93% and 91% respectively increased odds of a diagnosis of MIS-C after controlling for all other presenting features. Compared to inflammatory controls, children with MIS-C had lower platelets, sodium and albumin and higher troponin-T and pro-brain natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) (Table 1). The median minimum ejection fraction in MIS-C was lower than inflammatory controls (52% vs 63%, p=0.048). Ninety four percent of MIS-C patients received at least one dose of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), 63% required methylprednisolone and 6% received IL-6 inhibition. Children with MIS-C were more commonly admitted to ICU compared to inflammatory controls (38% vs 12.5%, p=0.013) although there was no difference in mean hospital stay which was 8.2 days in MIS-C. There was no difference in requirement for inotropes (p=0.142) or ventilation (p=0.493). No children died. Conclusion: Distinguishing MIS-C from acute infectious or inflammatory causes of childhood fever may be challenging. The presence of conjunctivitis, tachycardia or abdominal pain associates with higher odds of MIS-C in this population. Differences in widely available blood tests like sodium, albumin and platelets may be useful to differentiate MIS-C in the acute setting.

Health impact and cost of COVID-19 prophylaxis with monoclonal antibodies (preprint)

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 600,000 deaths in the United States and continues to disrupt lives even as effective vaccines are available. We aimed to estimate the impact and health system cost of implementing post-exposure prophylaxis against household exposure to COVID-19 with monoclonal antibodies. MethodsWe developed a decision-analytical model analysis of results from a recent randomized controlled trial with complementary data on household demographic structure, vaccine coverage, and COVID-19 confirmed case counts for the representative month of May, 2021. The model population includes individuals of all ages in the United States by sex and race/ethnicity. ResultsIn a month of similar intensity to May, 2021, in the USA, a monoclonal antibody post-exposure prophylaxis program reaching 50% of exposed unvaccinated household members aged 50+, would avert 1,813 (1,171 - 2,456) symptomatic infections, 526 (343 - 716) hospitalizations, and 83 (56 - 116) deaths. Assuming the unit cost of administering the intervention was US$ 1,264, this program would save the health system US$ 3,055,202 (-14,034,632 - 18,787,692). ConclusionsCurrently in the United States, health system and public health actors have an opportunity to improve health and reduce costs through COVID-19 post-exposure prophylaxis with monoclonal antibodies.

A Novel Approach to Monitoring the COVID-19 Pandemic using Emergency Department Discharge Diagnoses (preprint)

Introduction Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic using existing metrics such as confirmed cases and deaths are insufficient for understanding the trajectory of the pandemic and identifying the next wave of cases. In this study, we demonstrate the utility of monitoring the daily number of patients with COVID-like illness (CLI) who present to the Emergency Department (ED) as a tool that can guide local response efforts. Methods Using data from two hospitals in King County, WA, we examined the daily volume of CLI visits, and compare them to confirmed COVID cases and COVID deaths in the County. A linear regression model with varying lags is used to predict the number of daily COVID deaths from the number of CLI visits. Results CLI visits appear to rise and peak well in advance of both confirmed COVID cases and deaths in King County. Our regression analysis to predict daily deaths with a lagged count of CLI visits in the ED showed that the R2 value was maximized at 14 days. Conclusions ED CLI visits are a leading indicator of the pandemic. Adopting and scaling up a CLI monitoring approach at the local level will provide needed actionable evidence to policy makers and health officials struggling to confront this health challenge.